The West Bank annexation plan has Jordan on edge, fearing a 'silent transfer' of its people. But is this a legitimate concern or a conspiracy theory? The recent actions of Israel's far-right government have sent shockwaves through the Hashemite Kingdom, as they threaten to redraw the map of the Middle East.
For years, the idea of Jordan becoming a Palestinian state, known as the 'alternative homeland', was dismissed as a distant fantasy. However, with the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the Israeli cabinet's latest move, this concept has taken on a chilling reality.
Here's the controversial part: the Israeli government has approved measures to claim large areas of the occupied West Bank as 'state land', bypassing the military administration and treating it as their own. This bureaucratic annexation is a stark signal that the status quo is crumbling. With the Israeli military's aggressive operations in Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan's leaders are bracing for a forced transfer of Palestinians into their territory.
Mamdouh al-Abbadi, a former deputy prime minister of Jordan, warns that this is not just a threat but an impending reality. He believes that after the West Bank, Israel will turn its attention to Jordan, a move he calls the 'silent transfer'. This strategy, he argues, is about making life unbearable in the West Bank, forcing Palestinians to flee to Jordan.
The recent decision to transfer land registration authority to the Israeli Justice Ministry is a critical step in this plan. By erasing historical land registries, Israel is paving the way for massive settlement expansion, which could displace Palestinians and push them towards Jordan. Al-Abbadi highlights a symbolic yet alarming shift in the Israeli military's naming conventions, with a new brigade named after a region near Amman, suggesting a broader territorial ambition.
But here's where it gets controversial: Al-Abbadi claims that the current Israeli leadership considers the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty null and void. He warns that the Israeli consensus has shifted, and their ideology now threatens Jordan's existence. This raises the question: is Jordan's strategic alliance with Israel in jeopardy?
As diplomatic solutions fade, Jordan's military options come into focus. The Jordan Valley, a fertile strip between the two banks, is now a critical defense line. Retired Major-General Mamoun Abu Nowar warns of an 'undeclared war' and suggests drastic measures to prevent displacement. He believes Jordan's unique social fabric, with its tribes and clans, forms a formidable 'second army' that could resist Israeli aggression.
However, the situation is volatile. With the West Bank on the brink of religious conflict, the region could face a devastating earthquake. Jordan's army is ready, but the country feels abandoned by its oldest ally, the US. Oraib al-Rantawi, a political analyst, argues that the US has shifted its regional focus, prioritizing Gulf capitals over Amman, and is willing to sacrifice Jordanian interests for Israel.
Al-Rantawi criticizes Jordan's diplomatic stance, suggesting that its exclusive relationship with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah has weakened its position. He compares this to the approach of Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who maintained ties with Hamas, giving them more leverage. Al-Rantawi implies that Jordan's internal fears of empowering certain groups have led to a loss of regional influence.
Jordan's elite now calls for mobilization and survival, with a return to compulsory military service. Al-Abbadi advocates for universal conscription and cultural preparedness, including teaching Hebrew to children. As Israel erases Palestinian ownership of the West Bank, Jordan stands alone in a crisis that could reshape the region.
The question remains: is this a genuine threat or a misinterpretation of Israel's intentions? Are Jordan's fears justified, or is there a path to peaceful coexistence? The world watches, but will it act before it's too late?
